Agreeing with an earlier projection that the peak of thesecond wave of COVID will be around mid-May, a new research by a three-memberpanel of scientists set up by the Centre claims the second wave should be onits way out by this month’s end. This was reported by a national publication.
The panel, set up under the government’s Science andTechnology Ministry, used a mathematical model to project about 1.5 lakh newcases by the end of May and by the end of next month to about 20,000 per day.
The panel arrived at these projection using the model whichis called SUTRA (Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive) and RemovedApproach).
Fortunately, the surge of COVID cases is showing signs ofebbing and many states reported lower daily case numbers. Further, manyworst-hit states showed a reduction in their positivity rates also.
However, some states have yet to bear the full force of thesecond wave, claims the panel.
Also read: Centre asks states to make Black Fungus an epidemic, to report every case
Professor Manindra Agarwal from IIT Kanpur and a member ofthe panel claimed that the states which have peaked include Maharashtra, UttarPradesh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Rajasthan, Kerala, Sikkim,Uttarakhand, Gujarat, Haryana in addition to Delhi and Goa.
Those states where the peak is yet o come include Tamil Nadu,Puducherry, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, Himachal Pradesh, and Punjab.
Regarding the third wave, the panel believes that the thirdwave does not seem likely before October, and further that when it occurs it mightbe localised thanks to more people receiving the vaccination.
Finally, the panel accepted that they had failed in notbeing able to predict the breadth and scale of the second wave in the nation.
Professor Mathukumalli Vidyasagar from IIT Hyderabad, Head ofthe panel said, "We were very optimistic when we said the second wave willsee 1.5 lakh cases daily. We were wrong."
Also read: India records highest single-day testing of 20.55 Lakh, daily cases maintain a downward trend