Punjab’s 2025 monsoon eventually became an exceptionally wet one. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) Chandigarh, the state received 620.9 mm of rainfall between June and September, against a normal of 439.8 mm — an excess of 41%. What made the season particularly striking was that rainfall remained close to normal until mid-August before heavy spells at the end of August and during the first week of September pushed the seasonal figure sharply into excess. August recorded 74% excess rainfall, while September was even wetter at 94% above normal. The intense rainfall created flood and waterlogging concerns across several parts of Punjab, making 2025 a monsoon remembered as much for its disruption as for its abundance.
The 2026 monsoon is unfolding differently. Before the season began, the IMD had forecast that monsoon rainfall was likely to be below normal over most parts of Punjab, Haryana and Chandigarh, making Punjab one of the areas expected to face a weaker monsoon this year. However, that does not mean Punjab has remained completely dry. There have been several spells of heavy rainfall, including IMD warnings for heavy and very heavy rain in late July. The difference is that rainfall has been more uneven and intermittent, rather than developing into the sustained excess pattern that emerged in the latter part of 2025.
The comparison between the two years is therefore not simply about adding up millimetres. In 2025, Punjab's rainfall surged after mid-August, with extremely wet spells transforming an otherwise near-normal start into a season with a 41% surplus. In 2026, rainfall has so far been less consistent, with periods of rain followed by comparatively dry intervals. This distinction matters for agriculture, groundwater and flood management. A large amount of rain falling over a short period can cause flooding without necessarily providing the same benefit as well-distributed rainfall. Conversely, long dry gaps can create stress even when isolated heavy showers occur.
The 2026 monsoon story is also far from over. On August 13, IMD Chandigarh's station observations showed nil rainfall at several major Punjab stations on the preceding day, including Amritsar and Bathinda. At the same time, weather activity is expected to increase, with IMD forecasting further rainfall over the region. This means August could still significantly alter Punjab's seasonal rainfall position, just as it did last year. It would therefore be premature to declare 2026 a failed or exceptionally weak monsoon before the season concludes.
The answer depends on what “worse” means. If the concern is flooding, waterlogging and extreme rainfall, 2025 was clearly the more difficult year. If the concern is rainfall reliability and the risk of prolonged dry periods, 2026 could prove more challenging. The two years represent opposite monsoon risks: 2025 demonstrated the damage that excess rainfall can cause, while 2026 is testing Punjab's ability to deal with an increasingly uneven rainfall pattern.
For now, the most accurate conclusion is that Punjab’s 2026 monsoon is not simply a repeat of 2025 — it is a different kind of monsoon challenge. Last year, the state moved from near-normal rainfall to a dramatic surplus; this year, the IMD's early seasonal outlook pointed towards below-normal rainfall, while actual rainfall has remained uneven. With more than a month of the southwest monsoon season still remaining, the final verdict will depend on what happens through September. Until then, the comparison is less about which year had “more rain” and more about whether Punjab receives enough rain, at the right time and in the right places.