The prediction for tropical cyclones is above-average for the coming year 2026 by meteorologists because of the way in which the ENSO is currently undergoing a transition from the La Niña conditions to the neutral or weak El Niño. The specific prediction for the Northwest Indian Ocean is limited at the end of 2025, although the outlook for the Southwest Pacific and the Atlantic indicates near or above-average levels with the consequent effects for the Indian basin by virtue of the regular formation of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal.
Outlooks suggest there are heightened-threat environments in a couple of basins. The Southwest Pacific is predicted 5-9 named storms from 135°E-120°W, with 2-4 of those reaching severe Category 3+ intensity due to congenial Genesis at 10-16°S at angles W of 170°E. The extended TSR Atlantic outlook calls for 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major landfalling hurricanes close to the 30-year average in a warm neutral ENSO by summer 2026. The South Pacific Basin is anticipated to be near/slightly higher than average tropical cyclones, more than half of which could become severe due to rapid intensification.
North Indian Ocean: Future Scenarios However, a complete forecast for the season in 2026 is as yet not available from the IMD for India, though CFS V-2 models have shown low to moderate chances for cyclogenesis in the south Andaman Sea in coming weeks based on the post-monsoon conditions that may extend into early 2026. The annual trends in the frequencies of 3-4 cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea are shown by the climate conditions that have already been exceeded by the occurrence of four Bay systems in the year 2025. There are indications that average activity is likely into 2026, together with the absence in the first part of 2026 for the persistent conditions of negative IOD conditions that may be conducive for the formation of Bay systems. Additionally, ENSO phases may remain in the neutral levels throughout this season.
La Nina conditions that prevail into the first part of 2026 would be conducive for more activity over the Indian Ocean through divergence; even then, a Δ into the neutral phase by mid-year may hamper the achievement of peak levels. Positive SST anomalies in the Eastern Indian Ocean & Western Pacific would be conducive for genesis. Low wind shear would be conducive for rapid intensification.
Back-to-back systems would pose a persistent danger for the provinces of Punjab and Andhra or Tamil Nadu as has happened in recent cases through Fujiwhara interactions. Evacuations should be initiated earlier in advance according to recommendations. Enhanced shelter/storm-resistant structures would be emphasized. IMS sources would be emphasized through RSMC New Delhi update every time. Fishing operations in southwest Bay of Bengal are advised against at the end of systems in late 2025. Warnings issued for wind gusts reaching speeds of 65 km/h.