As India heads deeper into the summer season two very different weather outlooks are now being discussed by experts and weather agencies and together they are creating a mixed picture for the months ahead as on one side scientists are warning about the possible return of a strong El Niño event later this year which could increase temperatures and affect rainfall patterns across India and on the other hand the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted above-normal rainfall for May 2026 including in parts of northwest India such as Punjab.
With both reports pointing in completely different directions many people are now wondering what kind of weather India may actually witness in the coming months and according to climate experts the world is currently moving out of the La Niña phase and entering neutral conditions and from there there is a strong possibility that El Niño may develop during the second half of the year and the forecast models suggest there is nearly a 70% chance of El Niño forming by June and up to a 94% chance that it may continue till the end of the year.
Some scientists are even suggesting that this could turn into one of the strongest El Niño events seen in recent decades although experts also say there is still uncertainty and things may change over the coming months and in simple terms El Niño is a natural climate pattern linked to unusually warm temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and even though it develops far away from India it affects weather systems across the world including the Indian monsoon and it usually occurs every two to seven years and can continue for many months.
Scientists mainly track three climate phases including El Niño, La Niña and neutral conditions and during El Niño ocean temperatures become warmer than normal and during La Niña they become cooler than normal and neutral conditions mean temperatures remain close to average while for India El Niño is important because it is often associated with weaker monsoon rainfall rising temperatures and heatwave-like conditions in several regions and in some past years strong El Niño conditions have also been linked with dry weather and stress on agriculture due to less rainfall.
Experts say that if a very strong or “super” El Niño develops global temperatures could rise sharply for a temporary period and although “super El Niño” is not an official scientific term it is commonly used for extremely strong events where Pacific Ocean temperatures rise more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal and such events are considered rare and have happened only a few times since 1950.
At the same time another report is painting a completely different picture at least for the beginning of May as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that rainfall across India this month may cross 110% of the Long Period Average (LPA) suggesting that several regions could receive more rain than usual during the early summer season.
For reference the average rainfall for May between 1971 and 2020 stands at 64.1 mm however the latest forecast indicates that northwest India including Punjab could see normal to above normal rainfall during the month and if this forecast turns out to be accurate it may bring some relief from the rising summer heat in Punjab and nearby regions and increased rainfall during May could help lower daytime temperatures, improve soil moisture and support early agricultural activities.
The IMD has also said that in the immediate days ahead Punjab and nearby areas may witness isolated thunderstorms lightning and gusty winds as part of regular pre-monsoon weather activity however weather experts have also clarified that rainfall distribution may not remain equal across all regions and local variations are still possible so in other words some areas may receive good rainfall while others could still experience hot and dry conditions.
This is where the situation becomes especially interesting as while one set of forecasts is pointing towards a wetter than normal May in many parts of India another global climate outlook is warning about the possible development of a strong El Niño event that is usually linked with weaker monsoon conditions and higher temperatures.