Scientists are closely tracking changes in the Pacific Ocean with early signs pointing towards the possible development of a strong El Niño later this year and if it intensifies it could push global temperatures higher and increase the risk of extreme weather including heatwaves and drought-like conditions in parts of India.
Climate models show that the world is currently moving out of a La Niña phase and into neutral conditions and from there, there is a strong chance that El Niño will develop and the forecasts suggest:
Around 70% chance of El Niño forming by June
Up to 94% chance it will continue till the end of the year
Some experts also say this event could be among the strongest seen in recent decades although there is still uncertainty.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern where the surface of the Pacific Ocean becomes warmer than usual and this affects wind patterns and weather across the globe. It usually happens every 2 to 7 years & can last nearly a year.
There are three phases scientists track:
El Niño – warmer ocean temperatures
La Niña – cooler ocean temperatures
Neutral – near-normal conditions
El Niño has a direct impact on India’s weather especially the monsoon as during El Niño years India can see:
Weaker monsoon rainfall
Higher temperatures & heatwaves
Dry conditions in some regions
However every event is different so exact impacts will vary.
Experts warn that if a strong or “super” El Niño develops it could temporarily push global temperatures to dangerous levels and scientists say even short-term spikes are serious warning signs of a warming planet.
A “super” El Niño is not an official term but is used for very strong events and it means ocean temperatures rise more than 2°C above normal and such events are rare and have happened only a few times since 1950. The stronger the El Niño the more intense its effects on weather patterns.
There is a strong chance that El Niño will return this year and it could be powerful and for India this could mean pressure on the monsoon, rising temperatures and more extreme weather. While nothing is confirmed yet experts say the situation is serious enough to keep a close watch in the coming months.
