As September draws to a close, Punjab residents accustomed to sweater weather by early November may need to wait longer this year, although the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has yet to release its official winter outlook for the 2026-27 season, even as early climate signals point toward a warmer, possibly delayed onset of cold.
According to IMD's own seasonal forecast schedule, both the Northeast Monsoon (October-December) outlook and the winter (December-February) seasonal forecast are typically issued in late September or October, and as of IMD's most recent press release, dated September 18, 2026, the agency's focus remains on the tail end of the Southwest Monsoon, with conditions becoming favourable for its withdrawal from parts of West Rajasthan around September 19: the first meteorological step that must occur before the northwest plains, including Punjab, begin their seasonal transition.
Complicating the picture is a strong El Niño signal now influencing weather patterns across India. Climate trackers monitoring ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) data suggest daytime and nighttime temperatures are more likely than not to stay above normal across most of the country through the rest of 2026, a pattern consistent with IMD's own September monthly outlook, though the agency has not yet issued a formal statement specific to winter.
The mechanism behind Punjab's cold snaps offers useful context for what to expect.
IMD officials have previously explained that the state's sharp temperature drops are driven largely by western disturbances: weather systems that sweep in from the Mediterranean region and when these disturbances are absent or weak, as they were during at least one recent unusually warm autumn, northwesterly winds fail to take hold, delaying the province's characteristic chill.
IMD's Director General has publicly noted that winter, in the department's own classification, is considered to properly arrive only in January and February, with December offering merely the first "hints."
For comparison, last winter followed a fairly typical script: IMD issued its first formal cold wave declaration for Punjab on November 27, 2025, and by mid-November, district-level readings had already turned sharp, with Faridkot recording lows of 7.2°C and six districts placed under yellow alert for cold conditions.
IMD's seasonal outlook for that period had forecast normal-to-below-normal minimum temperatures over Northwest India, a call that broadly held up against the on-ground data, so whether this year follows a similar timeline remains an open question until IMD issues its formal outlook, expected within the coming weeks, but until then, forecasts pointing to a milder or later winter remain informed speculation rather than official prediction.