India has breached the covid-19 peak, a government-appointed panel said on Sunday. In the last few weeks, active cases have declined from 97,000-plus cases to 60,000-plus cases a day. The daily spike stood at 61,871 infections today, taking the tally close to the 75-lakh mark, according to the Health Ministry data. The number of active cases remained below eight lakh for the second consecutive day.
A government-appointed committee has said that covid-19 pandemic can be controlled with minimal active symptomatic infections by end of February 2021 if all the safety protocols are followed.
The committee was led by IIT professor, M. Vidyasagar has designed a Covid-19 national supermodel to help see its progression and provide assistance to the government to make short term and long term plans and decisions.
As a part of the study, ‘Progression of the COVID-19 pandemic in India: prognosis and lockdown impact’ published in the Indian Journal of Medical Research, the committee had to quantify the effects of lockdown, the impact of migrants returning home on the spread of the infection and economic optimization
In its conclusion, the committee said that India has already crossed its peak in mid-September and if safety protocols are followed it will record minimal active symptomatic infection by February next year.
“If all of us follow these protocols, the pandemic can be controlled by early next year with minimal active symptomatic infections by February-end. We do not yet know the weather-specific perturbations of this pandemic (in general, viruses tend to be more active in the colder environment) and the effects of possible future mutations in the virus," IIT Hyderabad professor M. Vidyasagar said.
With the view of the upcoming festival and winter season may increase as the susceptibility of infection but no further lockdowns are recommended if people abide by the safety protocols.
Professor Vidyasagar said, "The existing personal safety protocols need to continue in full measure. Otherwise, we will see a sharp rise in infections. Fresh lockdowns should not be imposed on district and statewide levels unless there is imminent danger of the healthcare facilities being overwhelmed.”
The committee noted that early imposition of early and comprehensive lockdown and strict rules like wearing masks and social distancing has helped India to contain the spread of the virus better than many countries.
“India has one-sixth of the world’s population (one-fifth excluding China), and one-sixth of the reported cases. However, India accounts for only 10 pc of the world’s deaths, and its case fatality rate of less than 2 pc is among the lowest in the world,” it said.
"With no lockdown, the pandemic would have hit India very hard, with a peak load of over 140 lakh cases arriving in June. Given our lack of preparedness back then, the healthcare system would have been overwhelmed, leading to many additional deaths. Had India waited until May to impose the lockdown, the peak load of active cases would have been around 50 lakhs by June," the panel report said.
The committee has recommended continuing with the existing safety protocols in full measure, otherwise there India can witness a sharp rise in infection cases.
Committee said, “ Avoiding Congestion especially in closed spaces and special care of those above 65 years and children is even more significant. Personnel with comorbidities need to be extra cautious.”
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The Department of Science and Technology had in June constituted a committee comprising eminent scientists and academicians to evolve a national supermodel for COVID-19 progression.
The mandate of the committee was to create an evidence-based mathematical model for the pandemic after taking inputs from various groups working in the domain in the country and use it to analyse past events and future trajectories of the pandemic.