AIIMS chief lists out how 3rd wave of Covid might be bigger than the second one
If there is a balance between restrictions and reopening along with some restrictions remaining in place, the effects of the surge may not be as severe as it was during the second wave, said Dr Guleria.Author : A. Gayatri
Since the prediction on the third wave of the Pandemic has been made in India, several mathematical predictions, projections and claims are going around. Amid all these predictions, AIIMS director Dr Randeep Guleria stated that there might be many scenarios of the possible third wave if it comes.
The next wave can be bigger than the second one if all restrictions are lifted and variant escape immunity, said Dr Guleria, quoting one possibility as projected by an IIT mathematical model. He added that if there is a balance between restrictions and reopening along with some restrictions remaining in place, the effects of the surge may not be as severe as it was during the second wave, provided the virus also remains stable, Dr Guleria said.
"One such model from an IIT shows that if all restrictions are lifted and if a virus (variant) is also able to escape immunity then the next wave can be bigger than the second wave. If some restrictions are kept and the virus also remains stable then cases will not be much and if we keep more restrictions then cases will further reduce," he added.
Describing what may enhance the virus strength in the third wave, Dr Guleria listed three factors including waning immunity, the emergence of a more transmissible variant, and lockdown relaxations as the possible reasons.
In the case of waning immunity, individuals who have been exposed to the disease before can again arrive at a susceptible state if they remain unvaccinated, once the natural immunity settles down.
Dr Guleria said that evidence for the third wave and vaccines are working, as the rate of hospitalisation has declined. Available vaccines can be tweaked after studies if new variants emerge, he added.
India's general Coronavirus situation is improving slowly with daily single day case count dropping. However, case spikes are seen in pockets like - northeastern states and Kerala. Maharashtra's Covid-19 graph has hit a plateau.
The jury is still accessing if these are the early indications of a third wave, meanwhile, the government frequently is warning the public against crowding and follow covid appropriate behaviour.