India is still recovering from the devastation caused by the second wave of the Covid pandemic, and experts have already warned of an inevitable third wave. The government of India is pacing its vaccination drive. Authorities rejoiced when India hit a single-day record by administering more than 8 million covid vaccines.
This shows the speed of vaccination is fast. But the question is- Is it fast enough to prevent a third wave?
Experts say that even this unprecedented pace of vaccination may not be enough for a country like India just emerging from a devastating second wave. The experts have also questioned whether this increase in vaccination drive is sustainable or not.
Even with the fast vaccination drive, India has covered only 4 percent of its vast population, whereas most of the West and China are administering 20 million vaccines per day. As per researchers, a third wave can arrive in months, and India might once again witness a shortage of oxygens and overwhelmed hospitals.
Gautam Menon, a professor of physics and biology at Ashoka University says, "I don't think the recent spurt can be maintained, given what we know of the supply situation."
"The single-day spike seems to have been the result of a concerted effort by some states, who may have stockpiled doses for this purpose. We would need to get to about 10 million doses per day to ensure that a future wave is less potent," he added.
Currently, only two local manufacturers are producing fewer than 100 million doses per month which are not enough to cover 1.4 billion people. Besides, the government of India has other problems to tackle as vaccine hesitancy prevailed in rural India that comprises almost two-third of the total population as well as some parts of urban India.
Earlier, this week, N K Arora, the chairperson of the National Technical Advisory Group on Immunization in India said that ‘as many as 220 million shots will become available starting next month.’
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The government has aimed to vaccinate the entire population above 18 years by the end of this year. Besides, India aims to vaccinate 10 million people a day.
By maintaining the average pace of about 3.2 million doses per day, India can vaccinate around 45 percent of its adult population by the end of 2021. Meanwhile, at the same pace, around 60 percent of the population can be vaccinated by March 2022.
According to Anubhuti Sahay and Saurav Anand, South Asia economists at Standard Chartered Plc, “if more vaccines become available and the pace increases by 30%, India could fully immunize 55% by the end of 2021.”
On Wednesday, Aparna Mukherjee, a senior scientist at the Indian Council of Medical Research said, "We're a big country, we've got a lot of people to vaccinate.”
She further said that vaccinating everyone before the third wave strikes the country is "wishful thinking," but efforts are on to inoculate the most vulnerable.
Meanwhile, India expects to add six more vaccines including Sputnik V in the coming months. On Tuesday, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, foreign minister, said, "The U.S. and Europe need to step forward if India has to ramp up its own production.”