India will witness 8-10 lakh fresh cases per day and the peak in deaths will come towards the end of May at 4,500 deaths per day”, says Dr Professor Bhramar Mukherjee, an epidemiologist at Michigan University.
These estimates by Prof Mukherjee are similar to what other experts and organisations are predicting about India’s second COVID wave, which on Monday reported 3.54 lakh fresh cases.
The figures mentioned by Prof Mukherjee are estimates of the reported cases and with no intervention by the beginning of May 2021, these numbers would see a steady increase. Experts believe that the ground reality is a stark contrast as many gases go undetected or unreported.
With India reopening in January, experts have said that public complacency is the biggest contributing factor to explain the second wave. The virus had the opportunity to mutate, producing a new strain which was detected in March and April. This new double mutant strain is now being detected in 80 per cent of cases in India.
''Based on our models, if we consider the second wave, the peak is reached when the recovery rate is around 78-79 per cent, then the peak could be further away in May. Our model suggests that the estimated peak time is 96 days from 15 February, indicating the peak happening in the 3rd week of May,” said Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser at SBI.
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The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle in its report has said that India will see a sharp decline in cases and fatality post-mid-May.
As the surge in cases continues, hospitals across the country are suffering severe resource crunch in the form of oxygen supply, beds and medicines.