NewDelhi, Sep 3 (IANS) The ABP-CVOTER-IANS BATTLE FOR THE STATES - WAVE 1 isprojecting a 4-1 scoreline in favour of the BJP in the five states going to thepolls in early 2022 -- Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Manipur and Uttarakhand.
TheBJP is ahead of the pack in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur. The AamAadmi Party is currently leading as the single largest party in Punjab,slightly short of the majority mark.
AAPhas emerged as a principal challenger or a close third party in Punjab, Goa andUttarakhand.
TheCongress is facing severe infighting across all the state units with Punjab andManipur being the worst-hit states.
UttarPradesh has Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party vying for second and thirdspot, respectively, while the BJP being comfortably ahead of both.
Thepoll shows that anti-incumbency sentiments and the Covid pandemic have notdented the relative vote catching ability of the BJP.
TheCongress, the only other national party, continues to be crisis-ridden and isunable to form a cohesive organisation that can offer a meaningful challenge,the survey found.
UttarPradesh
InUttar Pradesh, the BJP (NDA) is notching 42 per cent vote share as per thesurvey figures. This is despite the anger from certain section of influentialBrahmin voters. SP is a distant second with a vote share projection of 30 percent votes and BSP is projected to poll 16 per cent votes. The Congress remainsa marginal player with 5 per cent projected vote share.
TheBJP is slated to comfortably cross the majority mark with a projected 263seats. This number is 62 less than its 2017 tally. Therefore, there is someanti-incumbency, but that loss is not enough to unseat the party.
SPwill emerge as the principal opposition party with a projected 113 seats. BSP'svote share to seat share conversion remains poor, it is projected to win only14 seats.
ChiefMinister Yogi Adityanath is the most popular leader in the state with 40 per centof those surveyed naming him as the preferred CM choice. Akhilesh Yadav of SPis the second most popular leader at 28 per cent affirmation. Former CMMayawati is placed at the third spot with 15 per cent affirmation rate.
The UPBJP is led by a leader who leads his closest rival by close to 13 per centpopularity rating points. Also, UP BJP is projected to lead nearest rival SP byapproximately 12 per cent vote share. The BJP, therefore, enjoys advantage ofpopular leadership and strong vote bank in UP.
Punjab
AamAadmi Party is projected to become the single largest party in Punjab with aseat share of 55 and vote share of 35 per cent. Faction ridden incumbent, theCongress is currently in the second position with 29 per cent vote share and 42seat share projection.
In astriking observation, Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal is projected as the most popularleader in Punjab at 21.6 per cent affirmation. It is pertinent to note thatthis is partly due to non-projection of a CM face by AAP. Akali Dal chieftainSukhbir Singh Badal is the second most popular leader (19 per cent), closelyfollowed by incumbent CM Amrinder Singh (18 per cent).
Thenew PPCC President Navjot Singh Sidhu has not cut much ice with the electorateas his popularity number (15 per cent) for CM choice trails that of BhagwantMann of AAP (16 per cent). Sidhu currently is the least popular among the Big 5of Punjab's leadership.
ThePunjab unit of BJP is staring at its worst performance in recent decades owingto the anger generated by farmer protests and loss of alliance with the AkaliDal. The party will gain marginal vote share to notch 7 per cent of total votesbut it may fail to win a single legislative assembly seat.
Sidhu,the big bold gambit of Congress in Punjab has not shown tangible gains. Ratherthis move has divided the party. Aam Aadmi Party is clearly benefiting fromfarmer protests and anti-incumbency, but an absence of CM face is leaving theparty just short of majority mark. Akali Dal and the BJP are unable to find awinning formula after their rancorous fallout.
Uttarakhand
Despitefollowing a revolving door policy vis-a-vis its CMs, the BJP is projected towin the state. The BJP is projected to win 43 per cent vote share and 46 seats.The Congress is projected to poll 33 per cent vote share despite a spiritedfight by its local unit. This vote share may translate into 21 seats.
Keyreason for this surprise performance by the BJP is AAP's rise in the hillstate. AAP is projected to poll 15 per cent vote share thus taking away a largeshare of anti-incumbency votes that were to head the Congress way. Althoughthis rise in the vote of share of AAP may not result in significant number ofseats as the party is projected to win two seats in the survey.
Ironicallyenough, while the Congress is placed in the second spot, its leader continuesto be the most popular leader as CM choice. Harish Rawat is preferred by 31 percent of the state as CM choice, incumbent CM Pushkar Singh Dhami is placedsecond at 22.5 per cent popularity points. Anil Baluni of the BJP is placed aclose third with 19 per cent popularity points. Colonel Kothiyal of AAP ispreferred CM choice of roughly 10 per cent of Uttarakhandis.
Theprojected numbers highlight the issue of falling brand equity of Congress as acredible challenger to the BJP. If Congress were to be seen as the one and onlychallenger to the BJP, then AAP would not be able to cut away anti-incumbencyvotes. Hence despite a popular leader in its fold and a blundering incumbent party,Congress is unable to take pole position.
UnlessCongress can re-establish itself as the primary contender to BJP in the state,it is advantage BJP in Uttarakhand.
Goa
Goa isjust like the case of Uttarakhand when it comes to BJP-INC-AAP dynamics. BJP isin the pole position with a projected vote share of 39 per cent and a seatshare of 24 seats. Except that BJP's lead in the state is also reinforced by apopular leader.
BJP CMPramod Sawant leads his nearest rival from the AAP by a full 19 per centpoints. Currently he is preferred by 33 per cent Goans as the most preferredcandidate for CM's post.
AAP isprojected to emerge as the principal opposition party dethroning the INC. AAPis projected to win 15 per cent vote share and 5 seats. While the INC isprojected to win 15 per cent vote share and 5 seats.
CMSawant has done a competent job of managing anti-incumbency and is benefitingfrom complete disintegration of Goa Congress. The anti-incumbent votes aretherefore getting split between AAP and Congress. This bodes well for the BJP.
BJP isgaining Goa on the back of non-controversial local leadership and a split inthe anti-incumbency vote due to disintegration of Congress. This disintegrationseems to be a national trend within smaller states.
Manipur
BJPalliance is slated to win the state with 41 per cent vote share and 34 seats.It is significant as it signals the geographic diversity of BJP's ability to beatanti-incumbency across many regions of India.
Currently,the BJP is able to beat back anti-incumbency in North, East and West of India,this could be indicative of a larger subterranean trend that is not beingpicked up by political observers currently.
InManipur Congress is holding onto its status of the principal opposition party,its former state unit chief Govindas Konthoujam defected to the BJP a few daysago.
Thissums up the state of the Congress. From a potentially easy win the party wouldhave to make do with runners up status.
BJPcontinues its golden run in Northeast India. Congress is facing a leadershipdeficit and crisis of credibility in line with rest of India.
Thesample size for the survey was 81,006 in five states covering 690 Assemblyseats. This state poll is part of the largest and definitive independent samplesurvey tracker series carried out in India over the last 22 years, conducted byindependent international polling agency CVoter.