What's next in Punjab politics? Analysis of Punjab's Lok Sabha Election Results 2024

Congress is maintaining a lead in Amritsar, Ludhiana, Patiala, Fatehgarh Sahib, Gurdaspur, Firozpur and Jalandhar

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The counting for Lok Sabha Election all over India started at 8 am on 4th June 2024. First, postal ballot paper counting took place in the first 45 minutes and thereafter, EVM counting started all over India. As per the updates by Election Commission of India, Congress is leading with 7 seats, AAP is at second spot with 3 seats, SAD 1 while 2 seats are being won by independent parties. Talking about the vote share, Congress is marginally leading in vote share with 26.42 percent, narrowly surpassing the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) which has garnered 26.36 percent. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has secured a vote share of 17.87 percent, placing it ahead of the Shiromani Akali Dal, which has obtained 13.47 percent.

After looking at the results, it can be stated that Congress will not be able to break its 2019 Lok Sabha Election record of winning 8 seats. In 2019, Congress won 8 seats, BJP 2, AAP 1 and SAD won 2 seats. This time Congress has made its mark on 7 seats. Congress is winning in the following constituencies with the stated margin. Amritsar (37587), Jalandhar (175993), Fatehgarh Sahib (34202), Gurdaspur (67406), Ludhiana (33926), Firozpur (3648) and Patiala (14623).

During Vidhan Sabha Election in the year 2022, Congress won only 18 seats whereas AAP was able to garner 92 seats. BJP had 2 seats and SAD won only 1 seat. Finally, after 2 years, Congress made a strong comeback in the Punjab elections. Congress has been able garner votes from all Punjab regions namely Doaba, Majha and Malwa. From Jalandhar, Former CM Charanjit Singh Channi won, Gurjeet Singh Aujla is leading in Amritsar. In Patiala also, it is a big setback for Preneet Kaur and Dharamvir Gandhi is leading the race. Congress has finally made its based strong in Punjab.

Getting to Aam Aadmi Party, it has performed better that the last Lok Sabha Election where it was able to win only from Sangrur. This time AAP is leading 3 seats namely Hoshiarpur, Anandpur Sahib and Sangrur. However, AAP has failed to achieve the mark of 13/0 in Punjab.

Bharatiya Janta Party has not performed as it was expecting. While SAD is leading on 2 seats but BJP’s vote share is more in Punjab. Even after the visit of Pm Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, BJP did not get support from any seat. The visits created no difference in the voting decisions.

Lastly, Shiromani Akali Dal has been able to maintain a lead on its core seat i.e. Bathinda. Harsimrat Kaur Badal is leading by 51458 votes. However, the party wasn’t able to get Panthic votes. What proved to be a setback for SAD was loss of its core seats namely Khadoor Sahib and Faridkot. Both these constituencies are witnessing lead of hardliners Amritpal Singh and Beant Singh. Their win might change the political dynamics.