Who doesn’t love gold whatever form it may be in? While girlsmay go gaga over jewellery and men may view the metal as a means of speculationor investment in bar form, what is tempting is that the price of gold in Indiaand in international markets is near low.
What remains to be seen is that whether gold price will holdthis support and turn upwards or will it break support and move down.
Usually, gold and crude oil rise and fall more or less togetheri.e. they are positively correlated.
However, currently there are going separate ways. While thecrude oil is touching skies and not stopping, gold is near lows and seems to bea range and declining too over a longer-term period.
Technical analysis of gold futures by this author inAmerican markets at the time of writing indicates that the probability of adownward move is more than that of upward move, at least in the short-term. See the chart below and understand the thought-process and the rationale below:
1. The 20 days simple moving average (SMA) of gold crossedbelow 200 days SMA.
The 200 days SMA is almost God-like in power to halt bothdecline from above, or rise from above. This SMA is long-term trend.
2. The short-term trend (20 SMA) is declining.
3. Gold tried to recover and move above but was halted at the200 SMA.
4. The halt mentioned above was with a Topping Tail Bar akaShooting Star. This is a candlestick pattern that occurs when the sellersstrongly reject the highs and sell to bring the closing price near the low.Also, the range of open and close is smaller as compared to the high and lowrange of the same candle.
5. The rejection of higher prices with a Topping Tail Bar akaShooting Star led to a decline which strongly took prices below the recent lowcreated.
6. The candle at the time of writing is green, true, but a smallone tucked well within the previous red candle. This is technically calledBullish Harami and predicts a reversal to upside.
However, the patterns are effective in predicting turns whentwo conditions are fulfilled. One condition is the an event or pattern has tooccur at a relevant location. Secondly, the prediction of the pattern has toalign with the short-term trend.
Both these conditions are not satisfied by today’s candle atthe time of writing.
However, a short-term increase in price is expected, andwill provide opportunities as discussed next.
Now we are ready for recommendations concerning everyone’s favouritemetal – gold.
For those interested in jewellery, the price is okay forbuying. Just take care of the making charges. Be open to the possibility of theprice falling below your buy price in the coming weeks.
For investors who wish to buy (go long) gold, restrain isadvised until the short-term trend rises.
For speculators aka traders, two options present to thisauthor. The first one is for nimble and aggressive speculator - he may go longand sell his positions near 20 SMA.
For a speculator who likes to take trades in the directionof the trend, waiting is advised till the price reaches the 20 SMA. Near thistechnical analysis indicator, candlestick and its patterns may be analysed to estimate.If a bearish (downward) prediction is made them gold may be shorted (i.e. betagainst or in other words sell when you don’t have the asset)
It goes without saying that every person is responsible forhis actions, and this information is for education purposes only.