Are the urban votes going to be the deciding factor of Lok Sabha 2024 polls in Jalandhar?

Nearly 9.3 lakhs votes were cast in across the parliamentary constituency of Jalandhar.

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The final phase of Lok Sabha elections 2024 saw polling in all 13 constituencies of Punjab on June 1. In Punjab a total of approximately 61.32% voters cast their vote. The final tally on the voter turnout in Jalandhar showed that nearly 9.3 lakhs votes were cast in across the parliamentary constituency. The voter turnout was recorded to be 59.7%% across all assembly constituencies in Jalandhar.

However, the tally suggests that the urban areas saw a higher voter turnout than the rural areas. Of the 9 assembly constituencies, Jalandhar West saw the highest turnout 64.00% while the lowest voter turnout was seen in Jalandhar Central at 56.40%. While both of these are urban constituencies, the rural vote may hold less of a significance in deciding the final victor of the elections due to split between the votes among the parties with a rural stronghold. 

Here’s what this means, in the rural constituencies, the vote is likely to be split among the two parties that were banking on the rural factor. It is well known that BJP banks on the urban votes. It is also pertinent to note that Jalandhar West is the constituency BJP LS candidate, Sushil Rinku had previously been elected MLA. While Congress and AAP are likely to be the recipients of rural vote, the votebank will be split between the two. Not only this, the some split of the votebank is also likely to be taken away by the independent candidates or candidates from other parties. 

However, the urban votebank will be decided less split as that involves a majority of the votes going to BJP. Coupling that with the fact that the urban constituencies have seen a higher percentage of voters over the course of polling on June 1, it is likely that the urban vote will be the deciding factor in determining the outcome of the polls.

A similar trend was witnessed in Ludhiana, which is a majorly urban dominated constituency. As such, commulitatively, urban areas saw a higher turnout than the rural counterparts. The east, north and south, Ludhiana constituencies, all saw approx. 58% of voter turnout, while the highest turnout was recorded in Dakha at 62.51%.