The meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Shiromani Akali Dal chief Sukhbir Singh Badal has once again brought the possibility of a BJP-SAD alliance into focus in Punjab politics.
While neither party has officially announced any alliance, sources say the two sides are now exploring the possibility of working together ahead of the 2027 Punjab Assembly elections and the meeting between Modi and Sukhbir Badal was facilitated by Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini, who held discussions with the Akali Dal leadership before the meeting with the Prime Minister.
Sukhbir Badal met Saini at his official residence, Sant Kabir Kutir, in Chandigarh, before travelling to Delhi to meet Modi and according to sources, discussions between Sukhbir Badal and Saini focused on the possibility of a pre-poll alliance for the 2027 Punjab elections, the two sides also discussed the delimitation exercise and the Women's Reservation Bill.
The BJP is seeking support from the Akali Dal on important legislation, while the SAD is looking for political space and relevance in Punjab and sources say the BJP's need for support from the Akali Dal is significant even though the SAD currently has only one MP in Parliament.
The BJP is seeking to push important legislative measures, including the Women's Reservation Bill and issues related to delimitation and in this situation, every vote can become important, including the support of a party with limited parliamentary strength.
According to sources, the process began with meetings between Akali leaders and Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini. Certain SAD leaders first met Saini to discuss the 2027 Punjab elections and the possibility of bringing the two parties closer again. Saini subsequently consulted the BJP leadership, and sources claim that he received the go-ahead to continue the discussions, and around four days before the Modi-Sukhbir meeting, Sukhbir Badal, senior SAD leader Balwinder Singh Bhundar and Dr Daljit Singh Cheema met Saini at his Chandigarh residence.
The meeting reportedly lasted nearly two hours and the possibility of an alliance, the Women's Reservation Bill and the delimitation issue were among the matters discussed and sources also said the Akali leaders raised the issue of Sikh prisoners who have completed their sentences. Saini reportedly said that clarity on the matter could come after discussions with Prime Minister Modi or Union Home Minister Amit Shah.
The blueprint for the Modi-Sukhbir meeting was subsequently worked out during these discussions and according to sources, Saini then sought an appointment for Sukhbir Badal with the Prime Minister. Sukhbir later briefed senior SAD leaders about the developments.
On Thursday night, Sukhbir reportedly received a call from the Prime Minister's Office around 11 pm asking him to come to Delhi. He subsequently travelled to the national capital and met Modi on Friday, however, the details of the Modi-Sukhbir conversation have not been made public.
The developments come at a time when the BJP is assessing its position in Punjab and the BJP and SAD had been long-time allies before the relationship broke down over the farm laws issue. The Akali Dal eventually left the National Democratic Alliance in 2020.
Since then, both parties have contested Punjab politics separately, however, sources now say that the BJP's own assessment is that winning Punjab on its own could be difficult.
Another important factor highlighted by the internal assessment was the changing nature of the Panthic vote and according to sources, the support base of Waris Punjab De, the party associated with MP Amritpal Singh, has been increasing in several rural and Panthic areas, while at the same time, sources claim that the SAD's traditional support base has weakened.
The emergence of other Akali factions has also added to the challenge.
For the SAD, the issue is not simply about winning seats. The party's traditional Panthic vote has historically been an important part of its political strength. Any continued erosion of this support could make it difficult for the party to form a government on its own.
Seat-sharing could also become a key issue if the two parties move towards an alliance and according to sources, the BJP had earlier contested around 22 to 23 Assembly seats in Punjab when it was in alliance with the SAD, however, the party is now looking at a much larger share of seats. Sources indicate that a possible formula being discussed could be around 42 seats for the BJP, effectively doubling its earlier share. The final seat-sharing formula, however, has not been decided and would depend on further discussions between the two parties.
The discussion is not limited to the leadership of the two parties and according to sources, feedback was also gathered from BJP workers at the grassroots level. The feedback reportedly showed that a section of BJP workers supports an alliance with the SAD and the argument among supporters of the alliance is that the combined vote bases of the two parties could improve the chances of their candidates winning Assembly seats.
This is significant because the possibility of an alliance is not entirely new at the grassroots level and workers from both parties have, at different points, remained supportive of the idea of coming together, however, support among workers does not mean that a formal alliance has been decided.
At present, the answer remains unclear and the meetings indicate that communication between the BJP and SAD has increased and that the possibility of political cooperation is being explored, however, exploring an alliance and finalising an alliance are two different things, for now, however, the BJP and SAD are only exploring the possibility and no formal alliance has been announced.
