The second wave of COVID in India has claimed the jobs of onecrore Indians and about 97% Indian families are poorer because of the pandemic.
Mahesh Vyas, CEO ofa prrivate think tank Centre forMonitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) revealed these statistics.
He also claimed that May-end unemployment rate could be up to12%. It is pertinent to add that this figure was 8% in April.
Last year, during the first wave of the pandemic COVID, dueto the nationwide lockdown the unemployment rate reached a record of 23.5%.
Many experts point out that the peak of the second wave ofCOVID is past us and thus states will now be able to gradually unlockrestrictions. This should help boost the economy.
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Side effects of COVID on employment:
· Those people who have lost their jobs will havedifficulty finding another job.
· Jobs in unorganized sector will bounce backquickly, however quality jobs and those in organised sectors will see timebefore meaningful job opportunities materialise.
· The economy is opening up. Consequently,unemployment’s problem will begin to resolve a little bit, however the issuewill remain.
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· Currently, the labour participation rate is downto 40% which before COVID was 42.5%.
3-4% Unemployment is normal for the Indian economy
Vyas claimed that 3-4% unemployment rate is normal for theIndian economy. Moving forward the unemployment rate will come down.
CMIE concluded a nation-wide survey of 1.75 families. Thesurvey revealed a troubling trend. In the survey only 3% families claimed thattheir salaries increased, while 55% claimed that their incomes dropped. Theremaining participants, 42%, claimed no change in their incomes.
If accounted for inflation, this means that the salary of97% of the families decreased.
For the week ending on May 30:
Urban unemployment rate reached 17.88% while the nationalfigure was 12.15%. As per the data, the urban unemployment rate showed anincrease of 3% in the last 15 days, whereas in the week ending May 2, thisfigure was 10.8%.
The CMIE data continued that the rural unemployment ratedropped to 9.58%. A fortnight ago, this figure dropped by 4%.
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The labour force participation rate was 35.69%, while in theweek ending on May 16, the same in urban areas was 37%.
Prediction: Urban areas will have high unemployment ratefor the next six months
Dr K R Shyam Sundar, Labour Economist claimed that a highunemployment rate will hold for about three to six months because of three mainreasons:
1. Less livelihood opportunities.
2. Hesitation of companies in hiring new people.
3. Scientists’ claim that COVID may transmit viaair increasing risk in performing job duties.
Except Information Technology (IT), employmentopportunities scarce
Dr Sundar continues that IT and allied sectors are the onlysaving grace where the opportunities for employment abound. Other sectors likeFast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG), automobiles, urban markets, unorganisedsectors, hospitality, and tourism provide no reason for cheer.
Business is down, consumption has declined, and we aretrapped in a circle.
COVID pandemic statistics in India
· New cases in the last 24 hours: 1.26 lakh
· Recovered in the last 24 hours: 2.54 lakh
· Deaths in the last 24 hours: 2,781
· Total infected: 2.81 crore
· Total recovered: 2.59 lakh
· Total deaths: 3.31 lakh
· Total undergoing treatment: 18.9 lakh